ERCOT AI Electricity Price Forecasting DAM & Real-Time Energy and Reserve Markets
QR AMPS: High-Precision AI Price Forecasting for Texas Power Markets
Built for the rapid dynamics of the ERCOT energy market, QR AMPS handles 5-minute Real-Time Settlement, Day-Ahead Market (DAM) execution, and ECRS/RRS Ancillary Services. Designed for ERCOT battery traders, retail energy providers (REPs), and wind asset managers, it delivers the foresight needed to manage real-time scarcity pricing spikes up to $5,000/MWh.
| Market | Data Type | Forecast Resolution | Forecast Points | Update Frequency | Forecast Horizon | Probabilistic Bands |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real-time 5-min | LMP & MCE | 5-min | 288 | Every 5-min | 24 Hours | Low (5%), Average (50%), High (95%) |
| Real-time 15-min | LMP & MCE | 15-min | 96 | Every 15-min | 24 Hours | Low (5%), Average (50%), High (95%) |
| Real-time Hourly | LMP & MCE | Hourly | 24 | Every Hour | 24 Hours | Low (5%), Average (50%), High (95%) |
| DAM Energy | LMP & MCE | Hourly | 3 x 24 x 7 | Three times a day | 7 DA | 1-99 Percentile Bands |
| DA Spot Hourly | LMP & MCE | Hourly | 3 x 24 | Three times a day | DA | 1-99 Percentile Bands |
| DAM Reserves | REG-UP/DOWN NSPIN RRS & ECRS | Hourly | 3 x 24 x 7 | Three times a day | 7 DA | 1-99 Percentile Bands |
Interactive ERCOT Price Forecast Dashboard
Generates live ERCOT price predictions customized across HB_BUSAVG, HB_HOUSTON, HB_NORTH, HB_SOUTH, and HB_WEST trading hubs or specific resource nodes:
- Real-Time Intraday (RTD) 5-Min Forecasts: Continuous 5-minute LMP forecasts displaying probabilistic confidence bands to capture real-time congestion and volatility spikes.
- ERCOT DAM & Ancillary Services: Day-ahead energy and reserve forecasts (Reg-Up, Reg-Down, RRS, ECRS) visualized as P10, P50, and P90 probability curves.
- Automated ERCOT Accuracy Metrics: Continuous backtesting comparing P50 forecasts against ERCOT settlement prices using MAPE, MAE, RMSE, and Directional Hit Rate.
- 7-Day Rolling DAM Forecast Versioning: Replay multi-day forecast revisions to analyze price convergence leading into the operating day.
- ERCOT Telemetry Integration: Centralized tracking of ERCOT system load, wind/solar production forecasts, thermal unit outages, and zonal physical constraints.
Note: Public previews show 24-hour delayed data. Real-time access requires a registered account.