Loading ...Energy & Reserves Offer Stack Forecasting
QR AI Forecaster offers a robust energy and reserves offer stack simulation and forecasting solution for intraday and day-ahead markets, leveraging all available ISO data
Challenges
Clients’ profile. Generation companies, utilities, electric co-ops and munis, retail marketeers, and transmission entities operating in real-time intraday and day-ahead (5-60 mins resolution) markets.
Target. Accurate day ahead and intraday, 5 to 60 mins resolution, nodal, trading hub and LMP energy and reserve price forecasts to support trading decisions.
Why QR Offer Stack Forecaster Solution
Generators must submit offers for energy or reserves, typically in 10 bands or blocks, to the ISO and RTO. The entire stack of bids and offers are published by the ISO either publicly or to market participants, with some delays. Some ISOs sanitize the published bids. The key input to optimize the bidding decision for a plant is the ability to forecast the ISO’s stack of bids and offers for energy and reserves.
We offer a flexible AI and analytics algorithm that can be quickly adapted to specific energy and reserve markets in any ISO to forecast the offer stack of every intraday and day-ahead trading period.
QR Offer Stack Forecaster mimics the co-optimization merit order ranking algorithms of ISOs. It uses as the key input the latest information published by the ISO on the offer stack, this vastly varies from one ISO to another. Then QR AI forecasts of system load and spot price, and outages are used to recalibrate the latest published offer stack and project it forward to today’s intra-day and day-ahead. The details of this complex process depend on the nature of the offer stack data published in each ISO.
Forecast resolution are 5-60 minutes, depending on your ISO trading. Forecasts computation frequency is configurable, eg. 5-10 minutes, 24/7 for real-time intraday forecasts, and 9-12 am for day-ahead forecast.
How it works. We fetch the latest available outage & offer stack data from your ISO, we also use our own AI system load & price forecasts. We estimate the offer stack for forward periods and publish the results via API or manual file download.
Explore a full range of Price and Load Forecast as a Service
QR Offer Stack Forecaster Benefits & Features
QR Bidding Optimizer is seamlessly integrated and it is the primary user of the forecasted stack of bids and offers when calculating optimal bids for intraday and day-ahead markets.
The Offer Stack dashboard allows you to visualize, explore and simulate the offer stack in the past, along with your plants’ bids, and the marginal plant. You can measure the effect on the system price and your plant’s RTD, had you modified your bidding strategies in a certain way.
Since the system has a forecasted stack of bids and offers, the Offer Stack dashboard allows you to input selective bids for future periods, as scenarios, and immediately see the impact on the expected system spot price and your plant’s RTD. As a matter of fact, this is what QR Bidding Optimizer does in an automatic manner to identify the bids that maximize the plant’s gross margin.
